
Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Claude 3.8 will not count as Claude 4 for the purpose of this market's resolution.
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https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/artificial-intelligence/anthropic-web-config-hints-at-claude-sonnet-4-and-opus-4/
"Anthropic is secretly working on new models called Claude Sonnet 4 and Opus 4, which are believed to be the company's most advanced AI models.
This is according to Anthropic web configuration files, which were recently updated with references to Claude Sonnet 4 and Opus 4."
Very strong sign of claude 4 soon.
This market is crazy. Let's do simple base rate calculation.
How many times has Claude 4 come out? Zero.
How many weeks have there been? 13.8 billion years x 52 = 717.6 billion weeks
So base rate for Claude 4 coming out on a given week is 0 / 717.6 billion < 1%.
@JoshYou this is fairly convincing that a new Claude will come this week, but updates me a bit towards the name being 3.8, if Neptune is a reference to 8.
all of the evidence I've seen so far has felt iffy and highly speculative - none of it from people involved (although Anthropic seems to keep its employees quiet about alluding to new stuff moreso than Google DeepMind). I don't really think that they're going to release a new model, just a new safety paradigm
https://www.anthropic.com/events
May 22, 2025 — 9:30am PST
Code with Claude 2025
Join us for the livestream of the Code with Claude opening keynote.