Will Anthropic release Claude 4 this week?
233
1kṀ31k
May 25
61%
chance
18

  • Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Claude 3.8 will not count as Claude 4 for the purpose of this market's resolution.

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https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/artificial-intelligence/anthropic-web-config-hints-at-claude-sonnet-4-and-opus-4/
"Anthropic is secretly working on new models called Claude Sonnet 4 and Opus 4, which are believed to be the company's most advanced AI models.

This is according to Anthropic web configuration files, which were recently updated with references to Claude Sonnet 4 and Opus 4."

Very strong sign of claude 4 soon.

Would Claude 3.8 count as Claude 4?

This market is crazy. Let's do simple base rate calculation.

How many times has Claude 4 come out? Zero.

How many weeks have there been? 13.8 billion years x 52 = 717.6 billion weeks

So base rate for Claude 4 coming out on a given week is 0 / 717.6 billion < 1%.

"Stubbornly, I will believe, I will believe (Keep dreaming)"

sold Ṁ280 YES

seems to me like releasing Claude 4 tomorrow would actually undermine their developer conference. I don't think they would try to align them in timing.

@JoshYou this is fairly convincing that a new Claude will come this week, but updates me a bit towards the name being 3.8, if Neptune is a reference to 8.

bought Ṁ50 NO

all of the evidence I've seen so far has felt iffy and highly speculative - none of it from people involved (although Anthropic seems to keep its employees quiet about alluding to new stuff moreso than Google DeepMind). I don't really think that they're going to release a new model, just a new safety paradigm

bought Ṁ150 YES

it’s definitely something

@Bayesian place limit orders then

bought Ṁ100 YES

@jim But that’s work. Am i missing something?

@Bayesian i dont think you're missing anything, but seems like ppl want your action so...

bought Ṁ550 NO

no, but they'll release another banger blog post on AI safety

https://www.anthropic.com/events

May 22, 2025 — 9:30am PST

Code with Claude 2025

Join us for the livestream of the Code with Claude opening keynote.

i give 1000m

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