Would Claude 3.8 count as Claude 4?

@AugustSha no

This market is crazy. Let's do simple base rate calculation.

How many times has Claude 4 come out? Zero.

How many weeks have there been? 13.8 billion years x 52 = 717.6 billion weeks

So base rate for Claude 4 coming out on a given week is 0 / 717.6 billion < 1%.

"Stubbornly, I will believe, I will believe (Keep dreaming)"

seems to me like releasing Claude 4 tomorrow would actually undermine their developer conference. I don't think they would try to align them in timing.

@JoshYou this is fairly convincing that a new Claude will come this week, but updates me a bit towards the name being 3.8, if Neptune is a reference to 8.

all of the evidence I've seen so far has felt iffy and highly speculative - none of it from people involved (although Anthropic seems to keep its employees quiet about alluding to new stuff moreso than Google DeepMind). I don't really think that they're going to release a new model, just a new safety paradigm

via @SanghyeonSeo - could be something

https://x.com/btibor91/status/1925084250107478506

it’s definitely something

@Bayesian place limit orders then

@jim But that’s work. Am i missing something?

@Bayesian i dont think you're missing anything, but seems like ppl want your action so...

no, but they'll release another banger blog post on AI safety

https://www.anthropic.com/events

May 22, 2025 — 9:30am PST

Code with Claude 2025

Join us for the livestream of the Code with Claude opening keynote.

i give 1000m