Will "Anthropic release Claude 3, claims >GPT-4 Per..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Basic
1
Ṁ1502026
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Anthropic release Claude 3, claims >GPT-4 Performance is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will "Steering GPT-2-XL by adding an activation vector" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
52% chance
Will "GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
60% chance
Will "AI #4: Introducing GPT-4" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "AI catastrophes and rogue deployments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
41% chance
Will "AI Timelines" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
79% chance
Will "ChatGPT (and now GPT4) is very easily distrac..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "LeCun’s “A Path Towards Autonomous Machine In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
18% chance
Will "What will GPT-2030 look like?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "GPT-175bee" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Getting 50% (SoTA) on ARC-AGI with GPT-4o" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance