
Harris to pass Trump?
245
1kṀ61kresolved Aug 7
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Resolves YES if Harris is listed as more likely to win than Trump at any point before election day on https://electionbettingodds.com/
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I think current price gives an implied volatility of about 200%, that seems high to me
Looks like the market is actually dead on, https://github.com/ggarzonie/manifoldbarrieroption, https://archive.nyu.edu/jspui/bitstream/2451/27716/4/CeDER-08-07.pdf
even similar-er but slightly different market for more ~prediction~ - https://manifold.markets/dlin007/will-kamala-harris-overtake-trump-o