Harris to pass Trump?
245
1kṀ61k
resolved Aug 7
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Harris is listed as more likely to win than Trump at any point before election day on https://electionbettingodds.com/

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rn

bought Ṁ5,000 YES

@jim resolves YES

Huh, I didn't realize electionbettingodds simply averaged the betting markets. I assumed it weighted each one by market volume. I guess now I know better.

oh damn I thought it’d be weighted by volume that’s weird @ForTruth

bought Ṁ50 NO

I think current price gives an implied volatility of about 200%, that seems high to me

Wait the iv of a coin flip happening 3 months from now is exactly 200%. Hmm

even similar-er but slightly different market for more ~prediction~ - https://manifold.markets/dlin007/will-kamala-harris-overtake-trump-o

similar market for arb or hedging 🫡

Can we get clarification on a precise close date/time? e.g. before the votes are cast, before they're counted, etc.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Will close before election day.

What timezone @jim?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@chrisjbillington Nov 4, 2024 11:59 PM PT

bought Ṁ50 YES

I’m all in on Mamala!

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