🏅 Top traders

rn

@jim resolves YES

Huh, I didn't realize electionbettingodds simply averaged the betting markets. I assumed it weighted each one by market volume. I guess now I know better.

oh damn I thought it’d be weighted by volume that’s weird @ForTruth

I think current price gives an implied volatility of about 200%, that seems high to me

Wait the iv of a coin flip happening 3 months from now is exactly 200%. Hmm

Looks like the market is actually dead on, https://github.com/ggarzonie/manifoldbarrieroption, https://archive.nyu.edu/jspui/bitstream/2451/27716/4/CeDER-08-07.pdf

even similar-er but slightly different market for more ~prediction~ - https://manifold.markets/dlin007/will-kamala-harris-overtake-trump-o

similar market for arb or hedging 🫡

arb opportunity with this market btw

https://manifold.markets/jim/will-trump-drop-below-50?r=amlt

Can we get clarification on a precise close date/time? e.g. before the votes are cast, before they're counted, etc.

Will close before election day.

What timezone @jim?

@chrisjbillington Nov 4, 2024 11:59 PM PT

I’m all in on Mamala!