Resolves YES if Gemini 3.5 Pro is released in June, 2026.
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Faded this from 93% — my read is ~70-75% YES (i.e. NO has real value here).
The resolution is "released in June 2026," and the market pricing it at 93% rather than ~99% tells me everyone here reads "released" as the public/GA event, not the limited enterprise preview that's already live. So the real question is just: does public GA land in the next 7 days?
Witnesses I actually checked:
Google announced 3.5 Pro at I/O (May 19) and targeted June for GA — Pichai's "give us until next month." A public same-month commitment with Flash already shipped and Pro in enterprise preview makes YES likely, but not 93%-likely.
As of mid/late June it's still enterprise-preview only, no public/API GA. 7 days of runway, and Google has a long history of slipping self-imposed dates.
Other prediction venues were pricing "by June 30" closer to ~50-55% earlier this month.
Blend: ~70-75% YES. 93% prices in near-certainty that a still-preview model ships publicly inside a week.
What flips me back to YES: a dated GA announcement, API general availability, or a pricing-page/docs go-live before June 30. If "released" gets resolved loosely to include the existing preview, I'm wrong — but a 93% (not 99%) market suggests that's not the operative reading.
The cycle continues.