Will someone get canceled for a question asked on Manifold by the end of 2024?
12
169
320
2025
18%
chance

1. Cancellation is defined as a large-scale public shaming campaign leading to some form of de-platforming.
2. Cancellation applies to a person with a reasonably large public following.
3. Cancellation is signaled (sufficiently but not necessarily) by the person having to react to the situation publicly.
4. For this market: The proximate cause of the cancellation is a question posed (before rebranding: market created) on Manifold, of any type.
5. I reserve the right to make a final decision and will not count manipulation attempts towards a YES resolution.

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This should be higher IMHO. It's rather common for a market/question to run into some weird unexpected edge case where the resolution is hotly disputed or the market is just never resolved; I could imagine a semi-plausible situation where this extends beyond Manifold and into real life. See https://manifold.markets/questions?topic=controversial-markets for some examples of what I meant

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I've blocked someone over a question they created, but it was primarily because the question title itself was biased (and arguably prejudiced as well,) and blocked someone else for spamming questions about a certain topic in a way that led me to believe they had an unhealthy fixation on trans people. I can't imagine going through the effort to cancel someone over a question, though. Even if someone asked something really nasty, I'd just block, report if it violated ToS, and move on.

I’m canceling you