Will someone get canceled for a comment made on Manifold by the end of 2024?
Basic
11
Ṁ361
Jan 1
15%
chance

1. Cancellation is defined as a large-scale public shaming campaign leading to some form of de-platforming.
2. Cancellation applies to a person with a reasonably large public following.
3. Cancellation is signaled (sufficiently but not necessarily) by the person having to react to the situation publicly.
4. For this market: The proximate cause of the cancellation is a comment on a Manifold question (any type).
5. I reserve the right to make a final decision and will not count manipulation attempts towards a YES resolution.


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Seems high—9 months to go.

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