Will Bluesky have more active users than Mastodon by the end of 2025?
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18
Ṁ759
2025
69%
chance


If the number of active users for either platform cannot be determined authoritatively, the market will resolve to N/A.

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Seems likelier to be true now, Bsky hit a massive growth spurt after opening up.

What are the definitions of an Active user?

  • For Mastodon, I guess you will follow the definition from the link. I don't see what the definition is however. Can you clarify?

  • For Bluesky, I see on jazco.dev that there are only 840k users with more than 5 posts at the moment. There are no stats of how often somebody logs in. How will you decide this number?

https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats

@ErwinRossen If this is not clear-cut and comes down to the wire, I will:

  • Use whatever "Active user" number is given on Jaz's dashboard at that time, if any.

  • If there are none, I will use the ratio of active users to total users on Mastodon to estimate the number of active users on Bluesky. (Right now it is about 1/3)

I will likely use https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats for bsky user stats.


This is going to be a tighter race than I anticipated! Bsky is already at 3M accounts while Mastodon is at 9M. There are no clear active user counts for Bsky yet

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