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MANIFOLD
Will any US brokerage support a third-party-operated user identity by the end of 2027?
2
Ṁ1kṀ150
2027
43%
chance

Resolution Criteria

This question resolves YES if, on or before 2027-12-31, a US brokerage publicly supports a third-party-operated portable identity or credential system usable across brokerage relationships.

For resolution purposes:

  • The identity must:

    • be operated by an organization distinct from the brokerage;

    • persist across multiple brokerage relationships; and

    • enable authentication, authorization, delegated permissions, user preferences, or agent-related identity portability.

  • Support must be publicly documented and production-facing.

Qualifying implementations may include:

  • delegated agent authorization systems,

  • financial identity wallets,

  • portable investor credentials,

  • OAuth-style cross-platform agent identity layers,

  • verifiable credential frameworks,

  • or comparable interoperable identity systems.

Evidence may include:

  • developer documentation,

  • public product launches,

  • onboarding flows,

  • conference announcements,

  • or production integrations.

Fine Print

The following do NOT count:

  • Standard email or social login integrations;

  • Basic KYC providers;

  • Brokerage-internal account portability;

  • Data-export APIs without identity portability;

  • Aggregation products alone.

  • OAuth alone does not count unless it enables persistent cross-broker identity or delegated agent authorization.

Market context
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