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MANIFOLD
astral.sh acquisition market
9
Ṁ1.2kṀ2.2k
2027
88%
uv remains MIT-licensed
86%
ruff remains MIT-licensed
81%
Astral's GitHub org remains a distinct and active entity
72%
uv ships an OpenAI-specific integration or feature
54%
ruff ships an OpenAI-specific integration or feature
35%
uv adds telemetry that sends data to OpenAI
35%
ruff adds telemetry that sends data to OpenAI
18%
OpenAI/Astral publicly deprecates or archives any current Astral project (uv, ruff, ty)
18%
A credible fork of uv reaches >10% of uv's monthly downloads
17%
OpenAI releases a product named "Astral Codex"
12%
Merger does not go through

astral.sh is getting acquired by OpenAI.

What does it mean for Python developers?


All contracts expire at the end of 2027 unless specifically stated.

Related markets

Clarifications

Telemetry

For "add telemetry" options, they will resolve YES if telemetry is sent back to Astral/OpenAI post-acquisition.


Excluded (will NOT count as telemetry):

  • Basic self-updating requests

  • Package index requests to PyPI

Examples that WILL count (resolve YES):

  • Sending back code snippets from ruff

  • Intercepting PyPI requests

Opt-in telemetry still counts toward YES resolution.

Market context
OpenAI
Venture Capital
Artificial Intelligence
python
Mergers and Acqusitions
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bought Ṁ400 NO

Also see https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/astral-maintains-uv-python-package

bought Ṁ50 YES

For the sake of clarity, will the "add telemetry" options resolve to YES if telemetry is sent back to Astral, post-acquisition (at which point Astral is OpenAI)?

@josh yes. For the sake of clarity I'm excluding the basic "telemetry" involved in self-updating or package index requests to pypi.

Example that would lead to a YES:

  • Sending back code snippets from ruff

  • Intercepting pypi requests

Will still count if it's opt in.

reposted

https://simonwillison.net/2026/Mar/19/openai-acquiring-astral/

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