Will Yunnan still be a major tea producer in 2030?
Will Yunnan still be a major tea producer in 2030?
11
1kṀ3442030
73%
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At time of writing in 2024, China's Yunnan province is extremely famous in the tea world and produces a lot of tea, with puerh tea being particularly well-known. This market resolves to YES if the quantity produced in 2030 is equal to or greater than what was produced in 2024, and to NO if the quantity has dropped by more than 50%. If the amount produced is between 50% and 100% of 2024 production, the market resolves to NA.
My underlying question for this market is: is there going to be no (climate, political, etc.) catastrophe that makes Yunnan unsuitable for tea production? If the resolution criteria are unclear, I'll use this underlying question as a guide to refining them.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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