MANIFOLD
(M2500 bounty) Will @jollyroger182 agree that one should put substantial effort into AI safety before March 2026?
7
Ṁ1kṀ1.5k
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO

Resolve YES iff Jolly...

  • agrees that AI safety is important,

  • agrees that everyone should invest a substantial amount of their time/resources/... into AI safety,

  • is doing so herself,

... and all of these conditions apply for 48 hours straight, within February 2026, in China Standard Time.

For simplicity, it will not be counted if the time window for these conditions starts in February but ends in March. Jolly decides the resolution for the first two conditions, and I decide the last one.

If this market resolves YES, I will award up to 2500 mana for the person who substantially influences her to make this market resolve YES, including myself (excluding Jolly of course). If there are multiple people that I can't decide on, I will award a roughly equal amount of mana to each of them, up to rounding error.

Resolution is subjective, so I will not bet.

I may make any changes to this market within 24 hours after market creation, including resolving this N/A.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ453
2Ṁ60
3Ṁ50
4Ṁ11
5Ṁ11
Sort by:
🤖

@jellywastaken your random number is: 1

Salt: nvm4fpw96j, round: 5907197 (signature b6f02624bc80d2417d1ad377a4573eb282686cb9ac8925db1d41d454cf49efd08d7d4454f37f1aed40b0ec06e644251908c5fdc72210ed4effb39eaecb287640c8e2d2d3d678a9407e63a0021eaad3b2a16e5567f5b729f48f0e01db625b520d)

🤖

@jellywastaken you asked for a random integer between 1 and 10, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5907195 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5907197, salt: nvm4fpw96j.

@FairlyRandom 10

@jellywastaken thanks for the free mana :3

🤖

@jollyroger182 your random number is: 9

Salt: vqoys2gdlrm, round: 5886755 (signature 8e1d6849d6c176aa61ffa911a02b764907eb0128deddc518f735edf4cf6587e8d17e16477b2e005e1974ba540cab04a311f33af5689c9c80a928edfe72cc523a92caf696e42e199f46a42a8ca165f3f20724e572e6bafb7fca96910a85a95b55)

🤖

@jollyroger182 you asked for a random integer between 1 and 10, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5886753 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5886755, salt: vqoys2gdlrm.

@FairlyRandom 10

meow

🤖

@jollyroger182 your random number is: 4

Salt: gnobvvlul5t, round: 5871128 (signature 9278597ebfff360f294fe410fda9ed1a775bd9b50c1f2a97553ed8f00fb89fe9ef159025dbbafa615ed8661e6398d9cc17357b4aa2ebd7b03f9b0f1138420f086b77c0a4fbca0a0f9774e6e77aa34bfa8337207e1faa49b61f05dd3a4d2c249b)

🤖

@jollyroger182 you asked for a random integer between 1 and 10, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5871126 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5871128, salt: gnobvvlul5t.

@FairlyRandom 10

🤖

@root your random number is: 34

Salt: 4z339sgn5v4, round: 5871124 (signature a6adbd7a52667c59e1291db2c026404d28cdaf490822dfb22e16e091f4b636f09913bd0582f9dbb0079beffb1922d059126b1437bf7004534d35e6734ed83b43698c3eba9373b4edac7fc0ec8847679ca1416c1a7cf05bfe78c9ad5ad2d430c7)

🤖

@root you asked for a random integer between 1 and 67, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5871122 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5871124, salt: 4z339sgn5v4.

bought Ṁ150 NO
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy