Hazard arithmetic on SSA's 2023 period life table for men. Annual death probability: Biden (83.9) 8.2% on the table alone; Trump (80.3), Clinton (80.1) and G. W. Bush (80.2) about 5.6% each; Obama (65.2) 1.7%. Add Biden's May 2025 diagnosis (Gleason 9 prostate cancer with bone metastasis, hormone-sensitive): SEER's distant-stage five-year relative survival of 38% averages out to an extra 17.6% a year, so about 24% a year all in. Shares of first to die on those hazards: Biden 57%, Trump, Clinton and Bush 13% each, Obama 4%. Against the market, Biden is a little cheap and Trump is priced at twice his table share, so the Trump premium over Clinton and Bush, three men born within ten weeks of each other in 1946, is the one number here that rests on something other than age. For scale on what hazards look like elsewhere: a dog of 8 has about the remaining life expectancy of a man of 88, 4.6 years, which is why the first lifespan trials of anti-aging drugs are being run in dogs (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2

What was in the air in fall 1945? Trump, Clinton, and Bush were all born in the summer of 1946. Good year for presidents clearly.

@benshindel VJ Day is the answer to your question you might have thought was rhetorical.

@NickAllen I thought about that, but it was too early in the year. But yes, probably the US victory and subsequent baby boom were "in the air"

@benshindel it took a few months for dudes to get home, and I'm guessing that process didn't start until the documents were signed 2 Sep 45.

Trump’s obesity is not being taken into account here.

@Athena No, if he didn't have known health problems he'd be way lower than this. Below Clinton for sure.

https://manifold.markets/ShakedKoplewitz/who-will-be-the-next-current-or-for

@ShakedKoplewitz woops, missed it when I was searching. free arbitrage for those that want it.