Who will be the next President to die?
80
1.5kṀ33322029
16%
Bill Clinton
8%
George W. Bush
1.3%
Barack Obama
25%
Donald Trump
49%
Joe Biden
0.9%
Jimmy Carter excluded, who will be the next person to hold the office of the President to die?
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What was in the air in fall 1945? Trump, Clinton, and Bush were all born in the summer of 1946. Good year for presidents clearly.
@NickAllen I thought about that, but it was too early in the year. But yes, probably the US victory and subsequent baby boom were "in the air"
@benshindel it took a few months for dudes to get home, and I'm guessing that process didn't start until the documents were signed 2 Sep 45.
bought Ṁ5 YES
Trump’s obesity is not being taken into account here.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.