Manifold has launched Sweepstakes Markets. Users must verify their identity before participating in these markets.

This market resolves YES if information provided by users during the verification process is leaked. Manifold's own statement of this is sufficient to resolve YES. Public reporting or claims by others might also resolve YES if I determine such claims to be reliable.

Resolves NO if 2025 arrives and there has been no reported/claimed leak.

Publication of certain info as described in the "Sweepstakes Prediction Game Rules" does not qualify as a "leak"; a leak requires the exposure of information to which an informed user has not consented.

9. WINNER’S LIST

9.1. Except where prohibited, participation in the Sweepstakes constitutes each Participant’s consent to Manifold's and its agents’ use of Participant’s name, likeness, photograph, voice, opinions and/or hometown and state/province/territory for promotional purposes in any media, worldwide, without further payment, notice or consideration.

 

9.2. For a list of winners during a Sweepstakes Period within a year from the date of request, send a request in writing by mail, specify the Month and Year requested (one Sweepstakes Game and Sweepstakes Period per request), and enclose a self-addressed, stamped envelope to: [address]

If the rules are modified to cover additional information, and that information is exposed for users who have not consented to the modified rules, that would qualify as a leak.