Resolves to the range containing the first year in which the number of deaths is lower than the previous year. Reporting appears to be somewhat delayed, so this probably will not resolve until a couple of years after it actually happens.
If there is no decrease in the number of deaths through 2040, this resolves to "2041 or later".
Data source to be used for resolution remains to be determined. I'll likely use official government statistics, but if there's some reason to believe another data set is more reliable I may change this. Since this may involve some amount of judgement, I will not bet in this market.
1,000This has occurred between 2023 and 2024.
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2025/20250514.htm
@snazzlePop thanks!
At a glance, it looks like these numbers are estimates based on preliminary numbers. The drop is quite large across all categories of drugs, which makes me want to dig in a bit before relying on the estimated numbers to resolve.
I probably won't have time to do that til later this week. If you're desperate for your mana back faster you can see if a mod is willing to take a look at it.