Background
The "3-3-3" economic plan was proposed by Trump's Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent. The plan aims to achieve three major economic goals by the end of Q1 2028:
Reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP (currently projected to be around 6%)
Achieve real GDP growth of 3% per annum (current projections suggest 1.8-2%)
Increase domestic energy production by 3 million barrels of oil equivalents per day
Resolution Criteria
Each prong will be evaluated independently based on official government data for Q1 2028:
Deficit Target: Will resolve YES if the federal budget deficit for Q1 2028 is 3% of GDP or lower, based on Treasury Department data. Will resolve NO if higher than 3%.
GDP Growth: Will resolve YES if the real GDP growth rate (year-over-year) reaches or exceeds 3% in Q1 2028 , as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Will resolve NO if below 3%.
Energy Production: Will resolve YES if domestic energy production in Q1 2028 is higher by 3 million barrels of oil equivalents per day or more compared to Q4 2024 levels, as reported by the Energy Information Administration. Will resolve NO if the increase is less than 3 million barrels.
All prongs will resolve N/A if Trump is not president during Q1 2028.
Considerations
The Congressional Budget Office currently projects a deficit of around 6% of GDP in 2028
Historical GDP growth rates and forecasts suggest achieving sustained 3% growth would be challenging
Energy production targets, while ambitious, may be the most achievable of the three goals
Resolution will be based on official government data, which typically has a lag time of 1-2 months after the quarter ends
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