This market resolves as YES if, between market creation and November 10, 2023, the "resolution reliability" ranking continues to be visible on user profiles and is not removed. Otherwise, this market resolves as NO upon the feature being removed. See below for a screenshot of what I'm talking about:
Fine print
If the "resolution reliability" ranking is tweaked or edited, this market still resolves as YES as long as the basic idea behind it remains the same - i.e. presenting a text rating like "Exceptional" or "Great" rather than "4.9" or "4.6."
If the "resolution reliability" ranking is rendered invisible because of a bug, or temporarily taken down for 48 hours or fewer for some sort of maintenance or reworking, that does not cause this market to resolve as NO.
1,000π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ480 |
@Conflux Right? I like it a lot too. I think it's a good idea to present something like this instead of just a number like 4.5 - it conveys the same information and it means no one has to worry about having a 4.8 instead of a 4.9 or whatever.
@evergreenemily Yeah! Itβs less gameable and more interpretable. Downside is itβs less transparent and granular, but that might go along with being less gameable.
@Conflux I don't mind the lack of granularity, and if anything I kinda prefer it - if I'm checking someone's reviews, all I really wanna know is how likely they are to resolve their markets correctly. Something like "great" is all I need - knowing they resolve correctly 93% of the time or whatever isn't especially useful information to me.
@evergreenemily if it was up to you, would markets just say "Very Likely", "Unlikely", "Coinflip", etc?
mostly joking but it does feel in the spirit of Manifold to be precise
@Conflux Oh god, no. I've always liked the 538 model of election forecasting more than the less granular ones (even if I use the less granular ones for my own forecast because election forecasting takes an obscene amount of data.)
Maybe something like the current system with a way to click through and view more granular data? Something like:
Questions with a rating of 4.0 or higher: 99%
Questions with a rating of 4.5 or higher: 95%
Average rating: 4.8/5
Average reviews per market: 3.1
etc.