This market resolves as YES if I reach a 200-day prediction streak (equivalent to resolving YES if I trade on Manifold every day from tomorrow until November 7, 2023.) Otherwise, it resolves as NO upon my streak being broken.
I just reached a 100-day streak, and I'm curious to see if I can manage to double it. I'll put 25 mana into YES as an incentive, but other than that, I won't bet on this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ70 | |
| 2 | Ṁ61 | |
| 3 | Ṁ54 | |
| 4 | Ṁ36 | |
| 5 | Ṁ34 |
Staff has done enough to address this that P(Manifold doesn't address privacy concerns) is roughly 0. P(Manifold half-assedly addresses privacy concerns AND a viable competitor is available in the next 20 days) is about the same as it was yesterday, maybe a bit higher.
P(Evergreen reaches a 200-day streak) = 100% - P(Manifold doesn't address privacy concerns) - P(Manifold half-assedly addresses privacy concerns AND a viable competitor* is available in the next 20 days.)
*A prediction market site that lets its users create markets about (almost) anything, regardless of if it involves betting or Metaculus-style probability estimates - if anything, I'd prefer the latter (though it's very, very difficult to effectively monetize something like that & servers aren't free.)
@evergreenemily The "following" and "followers" numbers are missing because (for whatever reason) my phone takes an additional second or so to load them, and I took the screenshot while the page was still loading.