If Trump is elected U.S. President in 2024, when will the Russia-Ukraine war end?
Basic
14
Ṁ12492026
0.6%
The war will end before the 2024 U.S. president is elected.
4%
The war will end between Trump being elected and being sworn in.
1.5%
The war will end his first day in office.
1.8%
The war will end his first week in office, after his first day.
46%
The war will end before 2026, after his first week in office.
47%
The war won't end before 2026.
I'll give a week into 2026 for a potential lag on consensus of when the war has ended in the case it's unclear if it has ended or not around the new year. I will resolve to N/A iff Trump is not elected, even if the war ends before the election.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Irigi In that case I'll resolve to N/A, even if the the war ends before the election. For this poll I'm curious what people think based on Trump's assertion he'd end the war his first day
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