Will the US enter Stagflation by the end of 2024 [Swift Centre]?
15
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2025
18%
chance
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Defining stagflation as they do
defining 'stagflation' to be a scenario where, for two consecutive quarters, the unemployment rate averages over 5.5%, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeds 4%, and the real GDP year-on-year growth rate falls below 1.5%.
and also resolves to swift centre's interpretation of the outcome if contested
They put the probability at 14%
https://twitter.com/swift_centre/status/1668621049779617798 summarizing https://www.swiftcentre.org/the-chances-of-stagflation-in-the-us/
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