If you search duckduckgo for "https://openai.com/blog/gpt-4-5-turbo/", it seems to show a result! Is this real?
OpenAI announces GPT-4.5 Turbo, a new model that surpasses GPT-4 Turbo in speed, accuracy and scalability. Learn how GPT-4.5 Turbo can generate natural language or code with a 256k context window and a knowledge cutoff of June 2024.
This will, in general, use my (or mods if disputed)'s judgement. But for example, ignoring countervailing concerns most likely:
Resolves YES if OpenAI or sam altman or similar make a statement confirming it, resolves NO if they explicitly deny it
Resolves YES if that doesn't happen and OpenAI releases gpt-4.5 and the blog post appears similar enough to what appeared on duckduckgo that it indicates the leak was real
Resolves NO if gpt-4.5 is released and the blog post is different
Resolves NO if gpt-4.5 isn't released after some (long, close date extended if it's still plausible GPT-4.5 is releasing) period of time
1,000
3.00@jim why? gpt-4.5 (in the sense of A Thing Called gpt4.5) was not released, and that's the sense relevant for a blogpost with the title "gpt4.5" imo
@jacksonpolack no real reason, it's just obvious it's gonna resolve NO. I resolved my "is gpt2-chatbot based on the gpt-2 architecture?" market NO despite us not having any proof and everyone was happy.
Tried searching both Bing and DuckDuckGo just now. The top hit on both is now https://community.openai.com/t/gpt-4-5-turbo-leaked-release-in-june-2024-discussion/679825
To spare others some time: Allegedly the bing api says it was crawled in 2023, September (before Roon saying there's no gpt-4.5). I've only seen 1 random person reporting this on Twitter, but because anyone could check, it would be weird to lie about this. (https://x.com/xkcd1963/status/1767603185693143450?s=20)
@koadma i got the same result and bought this market to 2%... but low-info betters took over and I"m out of mana
@chrisjbillington I would've just asked "Will GPT 4.5 on release have a 256k context size?", "Will GPT 4.5 on release have a knowledge cutoff any day in June?".
And in fact I did make this after seeing the rumor: