Was Rudy Giuliani selling pardons with Trump? YES/NO based on my credence in two years (can resolve early)
Basic
10
185
2025
44%
chance

From now on, whenever I see an "EXPLOSIVE" political tweet on twitter, I'll make a manifold market on it. I'll check back in two years- and see if there's clear evidence (imo) it's substantiated, or clear evidence (imo) it was wrong or very overstated. former resolves YES, latter resolves NO, if I can't come to a conclusion either way or there's no evidence either way resolves N/A.

If it's very clear to me, I may resolve this early.

The tweet: https://twitter.com/KeithOlbermann/status/1658201258656759809

BREAKING: sexual abuse suit against Rudy Giuliani includes bombshell allegation Giuliani told alleged victim he was "SELLING PARDONS" for $2,000,000 each "which he and Trump would split" AND SHE HAS RECORDINGS AND EMAILS

A YES resolution could involve Rudy selling pardons to any individual.

background: I have no particular partisan affliation in regards to this news cycle stuff, and find all varieties of it to be tedious, even when they turn out to be true.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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bought Ṁ50 NO

sounds 95% fake but impossible to prove fake