Manifold, Polymarket, and Metaculus all have the same question with the same criteria. Which probability do you believe?
22
655Ṁ1154resolved Aug 6
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
52%52%
Metaculus
31%31%
Manifold
17%17%
Polymarket
Inspired by the varying probabilites of different markets on the superconductor questions.
Resolution criteria: resolves to MKT unless people who aren't trustowrthy make bets that are too large or suspicious in which case it'll resolve to a poll or consensus among commenters
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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