Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter] | Manifold

Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter]

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Altimor on twitter: Now 60% sure GPT-4 can be a seed AGI, with the right cognitive architecture. Defining seed AGI as a a good enough machine learning engineer / semiconductor designer to recursively self improve

(ht zvi)

Resolves if that happens, or when we get AGI and understand it well enough to claim it's impossible.

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I have no idea how he came to this conclusion, it doesn't seem particularly plausible.

He's replying to his post "We just had the most mind blowing breakthrough at Lindy. The formative insight of the company, I think. Couldn't be more excited, actually losing sleep over it.".

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Related questions

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

If GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Will OpenAI say GPT-5 is AGI?

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

Is GPT4 sentient?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

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