Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter] | Manifold

Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter]

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Altimor on twitter: Now 60% sure GPT-4 can be a seed AGI, with the right cognitive architecture. Defining seed AGI as a a good enough machine learning engineer / semiconductor designer to recursively self improve

(ht zvi)

Resolves if that happens, or when we get AGI and understand it well enough to claim it's impossible.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#GPT-4 speculation

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I have no idea how he came to this conclusion, it doesn't seem particularly plausible.

He's replying to his post "We just had the most mind blowing breakthrough at Lindy. The formative insight of the company, I think. Couldn't be more excited, actually losing sleep over it.".

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Related questions

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

If GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?

Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026

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Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

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Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

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