AstralCodexTen post mentioning Sam Altman's firing within a month?
10
190Ṁ911
resolved Nov 28
Resolved
YES

including open threads

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predictedYES

Further evidence in favour: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-continued-defense-of-effective contains the following phrase:

The only thing everyone agrees on is that the only two things EAs ever did were “endorse SBF” and “bungle the recent OpenAI corporate coup."

And the following phrase:

Being part of a board who fired a CEO, then backpedaled after he threatened to destroy the company.

(note: I like betting on my own markets, but I'll generally resolve to a consensus of other people who bet in low stakes markets like these as a reuslt)

That's a close one. If he never mentions anything close to it again, what do we think about how this should resolve? I'm not actually sure.

predictedYES

@jacksonpolack I just updated my comment: he explicitly uses the words "board who fired a CEO", in a context where it's clear that Sam Altman is the CEO in question.

Yeah I think that counts, any objections from anyone else?

@jacksonpolack I think it's beyond clear that he mentions the event, if this was a question regarding wording or using his name explicitly the question should have been phrased differently.

I just sold my NO shares based on the above, would have been more profitable to hold on to them and argue the other way.

@IsaacKing does that count?

predictedYES

@Undox IDK, I'm not the market creator.

I think it doesn't (but see above comment)

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