AstralCodexTen post mentioning Sam Altman's firing within a month?
resolved Nov 28

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PatrickStevens avatar
Patrick Stevenspredicted YES

Further evidence in favour: contains the following phrase:

The only thing everyone agrees on is that the only two things EAs ever did were “endorse SBF” and “bungle the recent OpenAI corporate coup."

And the following phrase:

Being part of a board who fired a CEO, then backpedaled after he threatened to destroy the company.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

(note: I like betting on my own markets, but I'll generally resolve to a consensus of other people who bet in low stakes markets like these as a reuslt)

That's a close one. If he never mentions anything close to it again, what do we think about how this should resolve? I'm not actually sure.

PatrickStevens avatar
Patrick Stevenspredicted YES

@jacksonpolack I just updated my comment: he explicitly uses the words "board who fired a CEO", in a context where it's clear that Sam Altman is the CEO in question.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polacksold Ṁ21 of NO

Yeah I think that counts, any objections from anyone else?

HenriThunberg avatar
Henri Thunbergsold Ṁ15 of NO

@jacksonpolack I think it's beyond clear that he mentions the event, if this was a question regarding wording or using his name explicitly the question should have been phrased differently.

I just sold my NO shares based on the above, would have been more profitable to hold on to them and argue the other way.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingbought Ṁ100 of YES
Undox avatar

@IsaacKing does that count?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES

@Undox IDK, I'm not the market creator.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polacksold Ṁ29 of NO

I think it doesn't (but see above comment)