Resolves YES if the World Health Organization reports over 25 million confirmed Covid cases in China during 2023, otherwise NO. See https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/cn
This question is about the number of cases during 2023, i.e. cumulative case count as of 2023-12-31 minus cumulative case count as of 2022-12-31.
Reported data takes time to arrive and can be corrected/updated over time. This question will resolve based on the most up-to-date data reported by the WHO for 2022-12-31 one month later. (I will preliminarily resolve the question early if the outcome appears clear, but the resolution will be modified as needed as per this criteria.)
The question will resolve solely based on WHO reported data.
This question will resolve N/A if WHO stops reporting data.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ179 | |
| 2 | Ṁ29 | |
| 3 | Ṁ19 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
The WHO website changed and I'm having a very hard time finding the cumulative number for end of 2022, but from what I can see I'm pretty sure there were <25m in 2023. I believe OWID and WHO currently use the same data source, and OWID shows 87m at the start of the year and 99m at the end of the year. This seems to match when I cross-check this against the WHO weekly case graphs.
@Birger China is still testing and reporting confirmed cases. There were 25 million cases in the last week of 2022 alone. However, the number of cases has been much smaller in the first weeks of 2023. In this graph from the WHO page, the big spike is in the last week of December.
@jack Thanks, it's difficult to get good information on COVID stuff at the moment, especially in China. Where did you get that data, and why do you consider it reliable? My experience with China is that data is all inflated or deflated for political purposes if there is an incentive to. Even things like the GDP seem to be massively inflated
@Birger It's from the WHO source that is linked in the market description. See the links I provided for a ton of discussion about the data reporting procedures.
Oops, the links with discussion are on the other market here: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-our-world-in-data-report-over
I believe WHO is simply reporting the official data that China reports. Yes, I agree that testing data is in large part about how testing is conducted, and that political motivations can definitely greatly affect that - things like how many people are getting tests, whether the test results get reported anywhere, etc. We saw these sorts of issues in all countries, but we may trust the numbers from some countries more than others.
@jack Has anyone ever told you that you write a bit like ChatGPT? Haha, I call it aggressively neutral. s it? :P What do you personally trust regarding the China COVID numbers? Not that it is that relevant for this, just curious.
@Birger Lol. I don't know that much about the current situation, but I don't think China's numbers are reliable. E.g. see this from WHO themselves: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/whos-tedros-concerned-by-china-covid-surge-calls-again-data-2023-01-04/ (that's about hospitalizations/deaths, rather than confirmed cases, but the reliability of those is related)