Resolution
Resolves NO if at any point in time, Russia claims control of Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, Ukraine, by May 15, 2023 according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise YES.
If this location is shaded orange or red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve NO. If this area remains unshaded for the entire time period, resolves YES. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through May 15.
Background
Bakhmut has been a focal point of ongoing fighting in the Ukraine-Russia war, and there are many key questions like: Will Russia will advance to capture all of Bakhmut quickly or will Ukraine will stall Russia's advance? Will Ukraine withdraw or keep fighting in Bakhmut? What is the interplay between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense? This question is a specific, objective question which helps reflect those.
Resolution details
The specific location used for this question is: on the ISW interactive map, the dot if you search the address:
улица Юбилейная, 54, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84501
which is the address of Bakhmut Children's Hospital from Google Maps. The shading of the map over the center of the dot when fully zoomed in will be used for resolution.
See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.
This location is pictured below with the map as of April 15.
(Other map sources or reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable. In that event, the deadline will be the end of day Ukraine time.)
Closely related, but using only red shading: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-control-western-bakhmut
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@jack Interesting! As I posted elsewhere, Ukraine is likely to counter-attack on the flanks to have control over the supply road and potentially encircle Bakhmut → buying some NO!
@42irrationalist Agree. I don't think it makes sense for them to counterattack in this location specifically, but maybe they hold or retake it as part of a broader Russian retreat?
Btw there's also this question on central Bakhmut:
@jack Hmm yeah, you are right.
By the way, would it make sense to adjust the market description somewhat given that ISW map locates the address "улица Юбилейная, 54, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84501" slightly incorrectly? ISW map gives a slightly inaccurate location (off by like half of a block). I am too lazy to make a map but basically ISW map gives the location a bit further down the street from Bakhmut-Khlib (see the map below).
Not that it matters all that much, but it's possible to hold the entire hospital without holding that specific point, so the location is slightly inaccurate. It might be a good idea for the future markets to use a specific lat/lon coordinates, like "48.5929662,37.958617" — I checked and they resolve alright on ISW map.
Given how close these markets are, there are a couple of advantages for using actual hospital coordinates:
— The point is not on the road → less chance of it falling right on the line between areas, which are frequently drawn on roads and generating some controversy.
— it'd make it easier for people to make sense based on media reports (a hospital taken vs a location outside of the hospital)
— Also I am kind of thinking of writing LLM-based trading tools and having more precision would be nice.
In any case, I figured I'd drop some thoughts.
@42irrationalist Thanks for looking into that - you're right that the dot is a bit off. I tried the lat/long coordinates and the weird thing is they resolve correctly if I already am zoomed in on Bakhmut, but if I enter them right after opening the map it sends me to some location in Iran for some reason!
Wow, so close! Looks like it resolves YES. (edited)
@jack Just in case: I think it's best to wait for the actual closing time in the unlikely case they'd update the map again.
Yeah, good point. I will follow the rules I've been using on my other markets, which I explained more clearly here
Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the date of a map update will be determined based on the archived maps on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates.
For clarity: the close timestamp of the market is not what matters for these questions. The text of the question specifies "Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through May 15." and "(Other map sources or reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable. In that event, the deadline will be the end of day Ukraine time.)"
@jack Then it becomes more tricky. I've definitely caught ISW map updating significantly like an hour before an update is made official and the date is changed.
Technically, tomorrow we might end up with a map dated "May 15" on https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap BUT actually updated on tomorrow's. If this link can't be used as the "source of truth" then I feel like it's best to clarify what's the main source of truth is.
@42irrationalist That's why I wrote the rules above about using the officially dated maps on https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates - the dates on those maps are the source of truth.
@Cloudbox No, the may 15 maps were published at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15-2023 and those are the final maps for this question.
@42irrationalist Close, but with ISW updating speed I'd bet heavily against it flipping.
@Fedor Yeah, but here it only needs to be shaded orange. I've been watching other maps (mainly the deepstate) and ISW is about as fast to update the orange part.
For example, compare the two maps above: the overall picture is pretty much the same with minor differences, AND ISW actually shows more claimed Russian territory in some parts of the map (and less in some others).