Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, Ukraine, by May 15, 2023 according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this location is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through May 15.
The specific location used for this question is: on the ISW interactive map, the dot if you search the address Bakhmut Children's Hospital from Google Maps "улица Юбилейная, 54, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84501". The shading of the map over the center of the dot when fully zoomed in will be used for resolution.
See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.
This location is pictured below with the map as of April 15.
(Other map sources or reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable. In that event, the deadline will be the end of day Ukraine time.)
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@jack What are your plans w/r/t more Bakhmut markets? I feel like the action now is more complex. Russian forces still trying to advance to the West whereas Ukrainian forces seem to be more interested in counterattacking on flanks.
@Cloudbox this is soooo damn close! Funny how incredibly invested i am in the news since i startend trading here...
Only betting yes as I think it's better than a 3% chance or will shift before close.
That said. The recent odds reduction, is that due to the Ukrainian counter offensive on the supply road shown on the map?
Secondly... About the maps. How is it updated? Why?
Isn't this pretty terrible opsec in the Russian behalf?
@Fivelidz not the counter attack. Russian Army and Vagner are having internal conflict. One of military groups gave up and left the city, posing Vagner in a harder situation. Also Army does not provide Vagner with ammunition (although there was such an agreement).
@Fivelidz See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for some info on how the maps are updated.
They want to capture it for Victory day, which is the 9th of may in Russia. In the west, Victory is on the 8th.
@Cloudbox And if we had a prediction market for 'Russia captures all of Bakhmut by May 9th' I would bet that one a lot lower than this one.
@Cloudbox They are separate forces that are working closely together. I interpret his statement as meaning only Wagner forces are withdrawing, not the official Russian military. Also note it may be a threat, him saying it doesn't necessarily mean it will happen. But it certainly speaks to infighting and poor coordination between Russian forces.
@Cloudbox most people will infer he only means the mercenaries he controls (Wagner group), not the Russian army. Whether they will actually withdraw as a result of today's comments is an interesting question. It was a hugely politically costly thing for him to say...
I imagine most people betting now are assuming that it won't be easy for the army to pick up the slack from Wagner group
The two above comments are basically right. To add more context a few hours ago Prigozhin published a video where he complained of insufficient supplies from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
I'm assuming he won't actually withdraw if he gets the supplies he wants. He also could be bluffing.