Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will the "Trustworthy" badge be removed in 2023?
12
Ṁ250Ṁ2.4k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

If Manifold removes the "Trustworthy. ish" badge in 2023, resolves YES, otherwise NO.

  • A renaming of the badge that preserves the same rough intent will not count as removing the badge.

    • For example, renaming it to "Trusted" or "Reliable" would not count as removing the badge. Renaming it to "Superforecaster" or "Top trader" would count as removing the badge.

    • If this is ambiguous, as a secondary criteria I may also consider how the set of users assigned to the badge changed, along with statements by Manifold about the intent behind the change.

  • Whether the badge has any powers or effects does not matter.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ48
2Ṁ21
3Ṁ15
4Ṁ13
5Ṁ4
Sort by:

Early update: I realized that the criteria about the number of users changing at the same time as a renaming was problematic, because it could cause an unintended YES resolution if Manifold made a trivial renaming e.g. to "trusted" and also updated the set of users substantially at the same time.

Therefore I have reworded the criteria as follows:

  • A renaming of the badge that preserves the same rough intent will not count as removing the badge.

  • (Same examples as before)

  • If this is ambiguous, as a secondary criteria I may also consider how the set of users assigned to the badge changed, along with statements by Manifold about the intent behind the change.

If the previous criteria were important to your bet, please let me know and I'll make it right.

Oh, so far other traders have only bet in the NO direction, so I don't think anyone would have been negatively affected.

Maybe @acc wants to change its vote!

Also see https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-be-supertrustworthyish for more context

Who will be "Supertrustworthy-ish"?
The Trustworthy-ish program started as a quick hack of mine, to grant badges to some Manifold users I trusted to resolve markets fairly. The idea was to: Help new users know which markets are safe to trade in, Reward helpful Manifold community members with a status symbol Prevent instances of false identity by verifying famous users like @EliezerYudkowsky Since then, we added the ability for admins to unresolve markets (making 1. less necessary), and also granted powers to Trustworthy-ish folks such as the ability to resolve closed markets. These days, I'm looking to cut back on my participation in the Manifold community due to time commitments and wanting to focus on initiatives like Manifold for Charity. But that leaves the Trustworthy-ish program in a limbo. My best guess is that the program should continue on in some form, but there's lots of room for designing how the program should proceed. To that end, I'm looking to choose a successor, someone to watch over the community at large, someone.... supertrustworthy. ish. Market resolves to the user identify as in charge of this, at market close. The process for deciding this is going to be fairly open; it'll probably be some mix of feedback from me/the Manifold core team/existing Trustworthy-ish folks/the Manifold community at large. I could imagine all kinds of fun/crazy setups for governing Trustworthy-ish in the future ("congress of reps!", "futarchy!"), but will start by designating someone to lead. In the meantime, I'd welcome y'alls feedback on the current program, and how it can be improved moving forward! Some key questions How do new users get badges? When do we unbadge users? Should we have different badges for different use cases? What do we call the program? What other programs should be part of Trustworthy-ish? Showcase? Forecasting tournaments like https://manifold.markets/GavrielK/bounty-will-anyone-suggest-an-idea ? Should Trustworthy-ish users get some kind of mana salary?

My personal opinion is the badge is ok, it was a reasonable start to help people see user reputation, but I am in favor of a stronger suite of community reputation features in the long term. I don't necessarily think it's critical to happen in the remainder of this year though, Manifold has a lot of other things they're busy working on.