If Manifold removes the "Trustworthy. ish" badge in 2023, resolves YES, otherwise NO.
A renaming of the badge that preserves the same rough intent will not count as removing the badge.
For example, renaming it to "Trusted" or "Reliable" would not count as removing the badge. Renaming it to "Superforecaster" or "Top trader" would count as removing the badge.
If this is ambiguous, as a secondary criteria I may also consider how the set of users assigned to the badge changed, along with statements by Manifold about the intent behind the change.
Whether the badge has any powers or effects does not matter.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ48 | |
| 2 | Ṁ21 | |
| 3 | Ṁ15 | |
| 4 | Ṁ13 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
People are also trading
Early update: I realized that the criteria about the number of users changing at the same time as a renaming was problematic, because it could cause an unintended YES resolution if Manifold made a trivial renaming e.g. to "trusted" and also updated the set of users substantially at the same time.
Therefore I have reworded the criteria as follows:
A renaming of the badge that preserves the same rough intent will not count as removing the badge.
(Same examples as before)
If this is ambiguous, as a secondary criteria I may also consider how the set of users assigned to the badge changed, along with statements by Manifold about the intent behind the change.
If the previous criteria were important to your bet, please let me know and I'll make it right.
Also see https://manifold.markets/Austin/who-will-be-supertrustworthyish for more context
My personal opinion is the badge is ok, it was a reasonable start to help people see user reputation, but I am in favor of a stronger suite of community reputation features in the long term. I don't necessarily think it's critical to happen in the remainder of this year though, Manifold has a lot of other things they're busy working on.