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Only 14 Speaker votes – 13 of which took place before the Civil War – required multiple ballots throughout the House of Representatives’ 234-year history. Only once during the post-Civil War era (1929) did it require nine voting rounds.

The Republican Party took over control of the House in January 2023. On the 15th round of voting, Kevin McCarthy, the recently expelled Speaker, was elected. This is unusual since it required more than one round of voting for the first time in 100 years. The election of the next Republican Speaker may require several rounds of voting due to the recent increase in Republican Party dissension. However, according to the data and historical antecedent, the election will not extend beyond 15 ballots.

Sources: https://www-statista-com.hult.idm.oclc.org/topics/10404/us-congress/#dossier-chapter5

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kevin-mccarthy-house-speaker-multiple-ballots-history/

House speaker finally elected on 15th ballot — the most since before Civil War

It's still far short of the longest speaker's election in history, which took nearly two months and 133 ballots.

@MosesMensah oops i was confused

Is this worth more 50%?

Arb with: https://manifold.markets/Ouroboros/will-the-next-speaker-election-have?r=T3Vyb2Jvcm9z

Will the next Speaker election have >15 ballots?

16% chance. McCarthy was originally elected as Speaker of the House on January 7th, 2023 on the 15th ballot. If McCarthy is ousted, a new election will follow to replace him as speaker. Conditional on McCarthy being removed through a motion to vacate before the end of his term, will the ensuing Speaker election take more than 15 rounds of voting to produce a new Speaker of the House? Resolves YES if so, resolves N/A if there is no subsequent Speaker election before the end of McCarthy's term. Resolves NO if the election concludes in 15 or fewer rounds of voting.