McCarthy was originally elected as Speaker of the House on January 7th, 2023 on the 15th ballot. If McCarthy is ousted, a new election will follow to replace him as speaker.

Conditional on McCarthy being removed through a motion to vacate before the end of his term, will the ensuing Speaker election take more than 15 rounds of voting to produce a new Speaker of the House?

Resolves YES if so, resolves N/A if there is no subsequent Speaker election before the end of McCarthy's term. Resolves NO if the election concludes in 15 or fewer rounds of voting.