Will the first replication attempt confirm LK-99 is a room temp superconductor?
resolved Aug 1

This is a mirror of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/ and resolves the same.

Copy of the resolution criteria:

Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?

This question will resolve as YES if the first attempted replication of the superconductivity of LK-99 that is published (pre-print acceptable) confirms the main findings. The replication must be conducted by researchers at institution(s) independent from the authors of the original study.

A confirmatory replication would have to include the following:

  • Reproduction of the synthesis of LK-99

  • Confirmation that the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (127 C) — the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting

  • Confirmation that the resistance drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm — true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature

Fine Print

  • Resolves ambiguous if there are no credible reports of an attempted replication before July 1, 2024

  • If the pre-print is withdrawn from arxiv and a new version of this paper, by one or more of the original authors and which satisfies these resolution criteria, is not published before July 1, 2024, and no independent replication has been performed before July 1, 2024, this question will resolve as NO. A new version of the original paper, as described, will not be considered to be a replication. If the paper is withdrawn and then the first independent replication is published before a new version of the paper is published, this question will resolve according to the results of the independent replication.

  • Metaculus will make a determination as to whether a replication satisfies these criteria and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear

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From Metaculus:

Resolves NO, since neither of two replication attempts published on the ArXiv today by teams in India and China, respectively, were successful:

  1. Synthesis of possible room temperature superconductor LK-99: Pb9Cu(PO4)6O

  2. Semiconducting transport in Pb10-xCux(PO4)6O sintered from Pb2SO5 and Cu3P

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@jack This can resolve NO as per the Metaculus resolution

@kenakofer yes indeed!

bought Ṁ6,000 of NO

REALLY hope I'm not misreading anything here 😳