Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate by at least 50 bps in the Feb 2023 meeting?
Resolved
NO

How much will The Fed raise the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, Jan 31 - Feb 1 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate by at least the amount specified in the title, otherwise NO.

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jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ10,000 of NO

"The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, as was widely expected." https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/live-updates-fed-rate-hike-february.html

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonbought Ṁ30 of NO

Fed fund futures now pricing this as 6% likely.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray

Unemployment numbers look fantastically low and the inflation numbers aren't out yet. I'm short fed funds futures for real money (and have been since summer)

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonbought Ṁ30 of NO

Fed fund futures pricing imply this is 20% likely:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html