Will the electoral college winner differ from [Trump] the winner of the 2024 presidential election first called by AP?
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Resolves YES if the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingent election procedure, is different from the first person called by the Associated Press (AP) as the winner of the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise NO.

Some examples of scenarios that could potentially cause this result include, but are not limited to:

  • The call of the election winner is retracted / incorrect

  • The election winner dies, is incapacitated, or otherwise drops out

  • The election results are overturned in the states, courts, or Congress

  • Faithless electors change the results of the Electoral College

Details:

  • If there are e.g. technical glitches that result in AP erroneously posting a call that was not intended to be a call, this will not count as a call.

  • Otherwise, any call counts, even if immediately retracted.

  • Serving as Acting President is not the same as President and does not count as being inaugurated as President.

See also related market on whether the person inaugurated is different: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-president-inaugurated-be-d

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See also related market on whether the person inaugurated is different

: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-president-inaugurated-be-d

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