Resolves YES if the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingent election procedure, is different from the first person called by the Associated Press (AP) as the winner of the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise NO.
Some examples of scenarios that could potentially cause this result include, but are not limited to:
The call of the election winner is retracted / incorrect
The election winner dies, is incapacitated, or otherwise drops out
The election results are overturned in the states, courts, or Congress
Faithless electors change the results of the Electoral College
Details:
If there are e.g. technical glitches that result in AP erroneously posting a call that was not intended to be a call, this will not count as a call.
Otherwise, any call counts, even if immediately retracted.
Serving as Acting President is not the same as President and does not count as being inaugurated as President.
See also related market on whether the person inaugurated is different: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-president-inaugurated-be-d
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ833 | |
| 2 | Ṁ41 | |
| 3 | Ṁ24 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 |
See also related market on whether the person inaugurated is different
: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-president-inaugurated-be-d
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Why use play money?Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?