Resolves YES if admins take it down (defined as resolving it N/A or closing it), or admins announce they are penalizing the author, before the end of the day 8/10 Pacific Time.
If the author takes it down that is not sufficient to resolve YES.
Unlisting the market is also not sufficient to resolve YES. (I think even if nothing else is done, it's very likely to be unlisted at least) Update: it was unlisted
https://manifold.markets/hmys/will-a-roomtemperature-atmospheric-13606118ad6f
Related questions
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน423 | |
| 2 | แน339 | |
| 3 | แน126 | |
| 4 | แน55 | |
| 5 | แน48 |
I hope Manifold takes action for https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-there-be-scientific-consensus as well - I see no reason for the market to exist, why not N/A it instead of unlisting it. However, they should definitely account for the fact that the author both updated the title and made an offer to reimburse folks.
@jack Clearly Joseph Noonan was doing thins in good faith and ended up being misleading unintentionally. Can't say the same for HMYS who traded on their own market and made a bunch of profit and didn't offer any reimbursements or even update the description.
If it were a random user, I might think unlisting and also editing the title, or something along those lines, was sufficient (assuming it was done pretty quickly, which did happen in this case).
I'd still advocate for taking away the ill-gotten gains, plus a fine to discourage that type of bad behavior.
But this user also has a track record of behavior that at least bends the rules, and in some cases seems to clearly break it. For example, the rules against
Leveraging balances of multiple accounts to boost an account up the profit leaderboard.
Holding positions which are then traded off to another account
Making trades with multiple accounts on the same market to manipulate the price/odds an account can buy in for.
Any other action that could benefit the profit of an account that involves a second.
See https://manifold.markets/LEVI_BOT_1/will-i-beat-hmys-in-our-planned-che as an example and https://manifold.markets/jack/do-levi-and-hmys-collude for more evidence
@jack I dont disagree about the user, but you should more clearly separate what you think should happen from what you think will happen in your comments.
@jack Seems more like a case for why you think there should be more penalties. Itโs a stupid joke, unlisting seems sufficient. My concern is, given the recent banning market, users might (wrongly I hope) assume this market will have an effect on the outcome. That is not what you intend, is it?
@NicoDelon I am certainly advocating for more action (e.g. taking away ill-gotten gains), and to that end I made comments in discord and on manifold. This question itself is both for predicting and a platform for conversation.
It is a stupid joke but also the author has the most profit on it (not a lot of profit because it didn't get any huge bets, luckily), and when people make questions like this they often use the "joke" as plausible deniability to cover for trying to make a bunch of mana off people who were tricked.
Let me point to an example (different author, just using it as a case study): https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-ai-wipe-out-humans-before-end. If it were just a joke I'd think it pretty funny, but it wasn't even an original joke, the author took a pre-existing joke and made it into a deceptive market, and then the author made 18k profit on it! Note that all the "read description" disclaimers were added afterwards, they weren't there at the start. I think Manifold should take action against these harsh enough that it's negative-EV to try to pull these tricks. And I also predict that Manifold will indeed do more of that, based on what @DavidChee has said about their moderation strategy.
@jack You donโt need to convince me that Levi is a troll and this website would be much better off without him. I had him blocked and I hope he gets permanently banned.
@jack Agree any user with a track record of rule-breaking should be punished. If not then the EV of scamming people is positive. That kind of behaviour is the thing I hate the most about Manifold.
A recent example that led me to question quitting Manifold was this market, which was rigged. I assume no punishment was given to the creator (and another supicious user which I blocked them both โ the two holding YES positions) https://manifold.markets/EhMe11/will-today-be-the-day-we-officially.
