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I'm unlisting this as it's deceptive

@ian You may want to look at this (as well as the comments).

https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-there-be-scientific-consensus#l3xa7Hlomy0vgEUOnsyY

Will there be scientific consensus that a room-temperature *semi*conductor exists on September 1?

90% chance. Resolves YES if there is scientific consensus that it is possible to create a semiconductor at 20°C through a known process on September 1, 2023.

Well it is already, silicon is a semiconductor right?

And it works at RT and AP ... So it's a free win right?

I think this is an obvious rule breaking question, and I expect it'll get taken down and the author penalized soon.

Users don’t maliciously take advantage of ambiguity, loopholes, and technicalities, at the cost of others. This is especially true if they are the market creator.

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Community-Guideline-f6c77b1af41749828df7dae5e8735400

Btw, the PSA wasn't there at the start of the question (although it was added not long after question creation). But deceptive titles are already plenty bad.

Notion – The all-in-one workspace for your notes, tasks, wikis, and databases.

A new tool that blends your everyday work apps into one. It’s the all-in-one workspace for you and your team

@jack This is no loophole, technicality or ambiguity because there is no debate about what a semiconductor is, on the other hand it's an answer that we already know the answer for a fact so ... It might break the rules, but the rules you mentioned aren't broken.

It's a technicality in a broad sense. And anyway, the author has a history of problematic behavior on Manifold, this isn't an isolated incident.

We can predict on it here:

@jack You are packed with coin... Damn.

Perhaps you are right, to me it's monopoly money anyway

@jack Its a joke market but also literally a valid question and only confusing because of recent events (unlike e.g. the "wipe out" markets, where the title would be misleading in any context). I at any rate expect the author will avoid litigation by resolving it early.

It's hard to say it's a valid question when

a) it's not predicting an unknown. Semiconductors are already in smartphones, there's nothing to predict.

b) it's clearly deceptive. If the author actually wanted the question answered, the title would make it clear.

As a joke, I find it funny and I in fact came up with the same joke independently, but unlike hmys I did it in a way that nobody would be tricked out of mana! (By posting the joke on discord, and then creating it as a poll https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-roomtemperature-atmospheric-aeef3b4e1090)

Will a room-temperature atmospheric pressure semiconductor be in a commercially available smartphone before 2025?

Just a poll, you don’t win or lose any mana on this. Vote what you think the answer is! PSA: This is about “semiconductors” not potential roomtemperature superconductors like LK-99. See comments for more info!

I see that the author actually hasn't been trading in this market (surprised me given their history). So given that, I guess I will update my beliefs - it's probably not fraud, it's just a joke (that still causes people to lose mana).

EDIT: I was wrong, they did trade a lot, I missed it.

@jack The author hasn't been trading much, but has still made the most profit of any trader.

@NcyRocks ah you're right. just doesn't hold a position at the moment

@jack HMYS was buying YES at first, sold later.

@Stralor Yep, bought a position early and cashed out. Didn't want to wait until 2025, I guess.

@jack then I update towards this market being problematic

Wow I should have read the comments first

@JeremyHon Really, we all should have read the question.

@JeremyHon Really, this market shouldn’t exist.

🤨

Oh no I can't read hahaha

Oh no i can't read hahaha

😂

PSA: This market is about a semiconductor, not a superconductor, don't bet NO.

@NamesAreHard was just about to say the same thing

@NamesAreHard I added it to the description.