Resolves yes if a room-temperature atmospheric preassure semiconductor is used in a commerically available smartphone by 2025. For example an iPhone or a samsung phone that anyone can buy.
PSA: This is about "semiconductors" not potential roomtemperature superconductors like lk-99. Also levi had no say in me making this market.
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@ian You may want to look at this (as well as the comments).
https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-there-be-scientific-consensus#l3xa7Hlomy0vgEUOnsyY
Well it is already, silicon is a semiconductor right?
And it works at RT and AP ... So it's a free win right?
I think this is an obvious rule breaking question, and I expect it'll get taken down and the author penalized soon.
Users don’t maliciously take advantage of ambiguity, loopholes, and technicalities, at the cost of others. This is especially true if they are the market creator.
https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Community-Guideline-f6c77b1af41749828df7dae5e8735400
Btw, the PSA wasn't there at the start of the question (although it was added not long after question creation). But deceptive titles are already plenty bad.
@jack This is no loophole, technicality or ambiguity because there is no debate about what a semiconductor is, on the other hand it's an answer that we already know the answer for a fact so ... It might break the rules, but the rules you mentioned aren't broken.
@jack Its a joke market but also literally a valid question and only confusing because of recent events (unlike e.g. the "wipe out" markets, where the title would be misleading in any context). I at any rate expect the author will avoid litigation by resolving it early.
It's hard to say it's a valid question when
a) it's not predicting an unknown. Semiconductors are already in smartphones, there's nothing to predict.
b) it's clearly deceptive. If the author actually wanted the question answered, the title would make it clear.
As a joke, I find it funny and I in fact came up with the same joke independently, but unlike hmys I did it in a way that nobody would be tricked out of mana! (By posting the joke on discord, and then creating it as a poll https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-roomtemperature-atmospheric-aeef3b4e1090)
I see that the author actually hasn't been trading in this market (surprised me given their history). So given that, I guess I will update my beliefs - it's probably not fraud, it's just a joke (that still causes people to lose mana).
EDIT: I was wrong, they did trade a lot, I missed it.
@jack The author hasn't been trading much, but has still made the most profit of any trader.
@Stralor Yep, bought a position early and cashed out. Didn't want to wait until 2025, I guess.
Wow I should have read the comments first
