Will the current Covid surge peak in the next week?
9
109Ṁ12kresolved Jun 9
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution: Resolves based on the 7-day average of new cases on https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. Resolves YES if the max 7-day average over the next week (5/25 through 5/31) is higher than than the max 7-day average over the following week (6/1 through 6/7).
Background: Indicators such as case counts and wastewater data https://biobot.io/data/ seem to some forecasters to point towards nearing a peak of the current surge in cases. Forecasters on https://kalshi.com/events/CASESURGE-22SEP22/markets/CASESURGE-22SEP22-A200 have updated the probability of average new cases exceeding 200k down from 65% a week ago to 28%, which appears to reflect increased confidence that we're nearing a peak.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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