Will the current Covid surge peak in the next week?
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resolved Jun 9
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Resolution: Resolves based on the 7-day average of new cases on https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. Resolves YES if the max 7-day average over the next week (5/25 through 5/31) is higher than than the max 7-day average over the following week (6/1 through 6/7).
Background: Indicators such as case counts and wastewater data https://biobot.io/data/ seem to some forecasters to point towards nearing a peak of the current surge in cases. Forecasters on https://kalshi.com/events/CASESURGE-22SEP22/markets/CASESURGE-22SEP22-A200 have updated the probability of average new cases exceeding 200k down from 65% a week ago to 28%, which appears to reflect increased confidence that we're nearing a peak.
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The 7-day average peaked last week at 110,433 on Thu 5/26 (slight revision from the previous value for that date). This week the highest value was 105,762 on 6/6.
It does look like the cases have essentially plateaued at the moment, but they haven't dropped significantly yet.
Worth noting that Memorial Day resulted in lower than typical reported case counts, but that fell out of the 7-day moving average in the last 2 days of data, and even if you ignore that day the previous week looks slightly higher.
The max 7-day average over the first week (5/25 through 5/31) was 110,394. So far cases have been trending down this week, partly because reported case counts are always much lower over the weekend, and we just had a long weekend including Memorial day - this would seem to be more of a data artifact.
Looking at the daily numbers, we are similar to last week but forecasts I've seen expect the next few days to be lower than the peak.