Resolves YES if the next (4th) Starship space flight test activates (or attempts to activate) the Flight Termination System on either the upper or lower stage or both, during flight (so if hypothetically it activates before launch or after touchdown, that doesn't count). Otherwise NO.
This question is about the next Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.
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@jack I think at that point they manually trigger it to make sure it sinks, if the soft water impact doesn't break it up.
@Mqrius But like, it wouldn't have much to do with the flight succeeding or not so I'd think it doesn't affect this market
@Mqrius Makes sense. I added
during flight (so if hypothetically it activates before launch or after touchdown, that doesn't count)
Maybe relevant since it has to due with the cause of IFT-2 and -3 engine failures: https://manifold.markets/JessRiedel/did-ift2-or-3-use-preburner-exhaust