Will Stable Diffusion have more Google Trends search interest than DALL-E, at the end of October?
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326
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resolved Nov 6
Resolved
YES

Stable Diffusion and DALL-E are two ML image generation models. DALL-E has been around for a while and is closed-source, while Stable Diffusion is open-source and was just publicly released.

Resolves YES if at the end of October, Stable Diffusion is higher than DALL-E in this Google Trends comparison: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=stable%20diffusion,dall-e. Resolves NO if DALL-E is higher. Resolves 50% if they are tied (same displayed whole number score).

Sep 2, 9:56pm: Resolves based on comparing the data points for the week including October 31.

Close date updated to 2022-11-05 11:59 pm

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Resolves YES

As mentioned in an earlier update, it will resolve on the basis of this week's data (which includes 10/31), so not closed yet.

bought Ṁ250 of YES

The set of people who watch Trevor Noah and who have the independence of mind to go google something is exactly zero:

predicted YES

Alternatively, fewer people watch him than ultra-niche podcasts

predicted YES

RIP OpenAI—

You trained compute-inefficient, Orwellian-censored models so that others might spend their personal hedge fund money to build much better open source ones

predicted NO

Stable diffusion dipped below DALL-E this morning.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Two days left and DALLE isnt yet anywhere close

Though interestingly most of the traffic for Stable Diffusion seems to be coming from China

@JaimeSevilla one month, not two days

sold Ṁ81 of YES

@jack oops

bought Ṁ50 of YES

🤮

bought Ṁ10 of NO
predicted YES
bought Ṁ12 of YES

Would not use this garbage if they paid me (per image)

Dalle finally goes “no waitlist” because no one wants it. Stable Diffusion traffic benefits more 🤔

predicted YES

@Gigacasting Non-believers getting wrecked rn (perhaps openai could release something that could spike it high for a day, i'm not paying close attention to if there are schedules or something, but there's no way stablediffusion is gonna slow down)

10 releases per day, or 1 virtue signal per month 🤔

Link: https://multimodal.art/news/1-week-of-stable-diffusion

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Assuming this is, "stable diffusion line is above dall-e line" and not, "stable diffusion average interest over time is greater than dall-e's"

predicted NO

@GeorgeVii Right, this resolves based on only the point in time that includes October 31, not the average over time. Adding that clarification.

Probably the most important thing to happen in open-source AI since [Tensorflow/Word2Vec]

Long tail of improvements coming, and their main api also has no wait-list; “openAI” looking about as cool as a mainframe company with their approach that’s about as open or cool as a 1970s mainframe pc

when your engineers have 170 IQ and your product managers have no iq

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Gigacasting yes, I noticed that too. Extra uncomfortable since those images are of noticeably lower quality, probably because of less training data.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Seems like it could go either way pretty easily.