Will Scott Alexander account for stock split when resolving "Will Gamestop’s stock price still be above $100 at the end of 2022?"
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18
Ṁ510
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
N/A

Resolves YES if when resolving /ACXBot/will-gamestops-stock-price-still-be , @ScottAlexander adjusts the question for the 4:1 stock split - i.e. if he resolves the question based on whether Gamestop's stock price is above $25.

Resolves NO if he resolves the question based on whether the post-split stock price is above $100.

Resolves N/A if it is unclear - for example, if the stock price is at $20 and he resolves NO without commenting on this decision, or if Scott resolves the question N/A.

This resolves 2 weeks after Scott states a decision (which can either be answering the question of how he's treating the stock split now preresolution, or when he resolves and scores his prediction on the question). In the event he changes his mind, his final decision as of that time is what counts.

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I wasn't able to find any specific statement from Scott about how he resolved it. Does anyone else know whether this was answered or not?

Why do we care what Scott says if the price is below $25 or above $100? I think it'd be more meaningful to have a market on how Scott resolves his question conditional on price being between $25 and $100.

I think it's likely that Scott will account for the split. I think that would probably be the best interpretation of the question. Scott, if you see this, it would be great to get your decision.

@jack technically @ACXBot (run by the Manifold admins) are resolving the question, not @ScottAlexander, so this question is ambiguous :)

predictedYES

Haha, I'm referring to Scott resolving his prediction in https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest but you are correct that my wording technically doesn't say that.

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