🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ517
2		Ṁ448
3		Ṁ434
4		Ṁ202
5		Ṁ148

18 Comments

104 Holders

731 Trades

Sort by:

bought Ṁ20 of YES

If you're unsure about the ambiguity, here are two markets that you can predict on instead:

bought Ṁ86 of YES

I think there's a ~45% chance the stock ends the year above $25 ($100), and if it does, the resolution is likely to be a disaster, because some traders are strongly assuming the question is about the split value and others are strongly assuming it's about the unsplit value. It would be nice to know more about the resolution procedure so we don't end up in a situation where large amounts of mana hinge on having to figure it out after the fact.

sold Ṁ40 of NO

@StevenK Yeah agreed that changes the market significantly

@StevenK Either way this ACX bot will be getting the incorrectly resolve tag very soon

It says "Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment" - Scott normally posts his judgements and scores his own predictions sometime in the following year.

predicted YES

@jack It seems likely that his judgment will be something else than a straightforward "true" or "false". For example, maybe he'll judge it "false", and then someone will point out the split, and then he'll change it to "true", and then the resolution will be a disaster.

predicted YES

@StevenK Good point, this can be avoided by waiting a week or two after his post to resolve

predicted YES

How does this get resolved if Scott doesn't rule it as either true or false (because of the ambiguity introduced by the split)?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@StevenK I would imagine N/A.

predicted NO

@StevenK How is it ambiguous? We know it was a 4:1 split so you just multiply the current price by 4

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@JonLamb I agree that that's the spirit of the prediction. The ambiguity is in whether to go by the spirit or the letter.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@StevenK The stock is at $24.28 ($97.12) right now, so I don't know why people are bidding this market down so low. I don't know who runs ACXBot, so I'm a little worried that I might be betting against the person who decides the question resolution.

predicted YES

@StevenK The Manifold admins run ACXBot, so there should be no risk there.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Current price at $22.26 ($89.04 to account for the split). The stock has been trending down and GME just reported a decline in revenue. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-07/gamestop-reports-revenue-decline-amid-broader-gaming-slump

bought Ṁ200 of YES

I would guess that under scott's judgement the target value will be adjusted for the split

bought Ṁ150 of NO

There has now been a split. 4 for 1, so (assuming no further splits this year) the list price equivalent to $100 at the time the prediction was made and the question was posted is $25. If the list price is what we care about, there is essentially 0 chance of this resolving YES, we'd have to get a 3x increase despite an incoming recession.