Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by March 31, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. Orange shading does not count as YES.
(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)
Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023
Related:
Russia's grip on Bakhmut is tight,
But by March 31, will they have might?
Their power may falter or take flight,
In prediction markets, we'll see who's right.
should be higher than this:
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-the-ukrainian-army-pull-out-of?r=TWlsb3NOb3ZvdG55
@MilosNovotny nah that one should be lower. The Russian offensive is spent, they're extending the draft again for more low quality conscripts, the weather has turned and the Ukrainian counteroffensive is hours away
@CromlynGames I only commented on the relative odds. I guess you're right
