Will Russia control Bakhmut by March 31?

Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by March 31, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. Orange shading does not count as YES.

(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)

Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023


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Mason avatar

Russia's grip on Bakhmut is tight,
But by March 31, will they have might?
Their power may falter or take flight,
In prediction markets, we'll see who's right.

MilosNovotny avatar
Miloš Novotnýis predicting NO at 25%
CromlynGames avatar
Patrick Barryis predicting NO at 26%

@MilosNovotny nah that one should be lower. The Russian offensive is spent, they're extending the draft again for more low quality conscripts, the weather has turned and the Ukrainian counteroffensive is hours away

MilosNovotny avatar
Miloš Novotnýis predicting NO at 21%

@CromlynGames I only commented on the relative odds. I guess you're right