Will Russia control Bakhmut by March 31?
112
393
2.5k
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by March 31, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. Orange shading does not count as YES.

(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)

Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023

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There’s a Wagner flag flying in the center of Bakhmut today, and Russia claims to have captured central Bakhmut. https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1641927674070179841?s=46&t=fdgdiEzkLwQ2qvItoWggvg

However, ISW maps do not presently show Bakhmut 2 and immediately adjacent areas in RED.

predicted NO

@alangrow Thanks for the links. Yes, Bakhmut 2 is further east and is out of both the red and yellow areas. Here's today's map. It's already April 1 Ukraine time now, so I'm pretty sure it's safe to resolve NO, but I can also wait until tomorrow to be sure.

predicted YES

It's not looking good (for the YES buyers, looking great for Ukraine).

predicted YES

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2023/03/19/ukrainian-forces-running-out-of-shells-equipment-in-fight-for-bakhmut

In today's map from ISW, it looks like the Russians have advanced from the south to block the T0504, the main road into Bakhmut from the west. If true, this forces the Ukrainians to resupply via a dirt road through Khromove to the north, which also looks perilously close to Russian controlled territory.

Ukraine has held out for a very long time, but unless the spring counteroffensive materializes soon, I think there's a solid chance they will be forced to withdraw in the next couple weeks, if they don't want to be surrounded and wiped out.

If the Russians end up taking Bakhmut, I hope they choke on it.

predicted NO

@ErickBall ground still to soft for counteroffensive, or so I hear

predicted YES

@CromlynGames I am very happy to have lost some mana on this one. The Wagner group is falling apart, and it looks like Ukraine can continue to hold its ground even without the counteroffensive.

Russia's grip on Bakhmut is tight,
But by March 31, will they have might?
Their power may falter or take flight,
In prediction markets, we'll see who's right.

predicted NO

@MilosNovotny nah that one should be lower. The Russian offensive is spent, they're extending the draft again for more low quality conscripts, the weather has turned and the Ukrainian counteroffensive is hours away

predicted NO

@CromlynGames I only commented on the relative odds. I guess you're right