Will r/place say "fuck spez" when it closes?
resolved Jul 25

Resolves whenever this edition of r/place ends. If the exact text "fuck spez" is visible in the final snapshot, resolves to YES, otherwise NO.


Reddit users are complaining about admins messing with the canvas to remove messages and imagery protesting against Reddit.

When asked if Reddit will remove the protesting messages, spokesperson Courtney Geesey-Dorr pointed to the r/Place canvas rules. One of those rules says that “targeted hate or harassment of private individuals (including mods and admin) and protected groups are violations of our [content] policy (Rule 1) and will be removed. In addition, posts, comments, and imagery that are hateful, graphic, sexually-explicit, and / or offensive are violations of our policy (Rule 6) and will be removed.”

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predicted NO

Daaaang. I was fully expecting reddit mods to be much heavier-handed there!

I'm not seeing any ambiguity here. Anyone want to make the argument for No?

predicted YES
predicted YES

In case you can not see it. lol.

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind is this the final pic

Thanks for the links, resolved!

predicted NO

@jack it's not the exact text. It's upper case 🤓

predicted NO

@Joshua It is not clear at all to me that this is the final pic.

There was still time after this pic before the color palette got changed.

After that there was a period where the color palette changed to just greyscale, and after that there was the whiteout period.

Why does a certain number of minutes before the color palette changed for the second(?) time count as the the closing time of r/place? IMO a more natural end of r/place is the current white canvas.


predicted NO

@FlorisvanDoorn If "Final snapshot" in the market description means the official snapshot of reddit, then this is probably it. I (mis?)interpreted it as the final state of the canvas when no more pixels could be placed (which I didn't expect to be all-white for most of r/place, obv).

EDIT: actually I went by what the title of the market said, but the description (which of course should take precedence) probably accurately describes this as the final pic.

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn I would think it is (in a way) similar to how Leagues are run on Manifold, a random time, anything after is not official and reverts back to the frozen time.

predicted YES

i thought that on r/place they would have a special spot for past years. and that was my assumption on what the final canvas would look like.

actually, when they release the time lapse. the final frame would probably be more of the final piece. or if it cant be nailed down to a final frame... maybe the last few seconds.

predicted NO

@FlorisvanDoorn Actually, I'm still not sure. (I'm sorry for contradicting myself twice in a few messages - I don't want to just be saying "I lost mana, therefore the market should be reresolved".)

If reddit comes out with the next timelapse (for the last day or the full timelapse), and suppose it ends with the whiteout. Does that mean that the whiteout is the final snapshot (mentioned in the description)? It's clearly the status when r/place closes (mentioned in the title).

@FlorisvanDoorn Someone did ask about the whiteout at the start of this question, and we clarified that it was before the whiteout, that's what "final snapshot" was supposed to mean. It's possible there's some ambiguity about what the "final snapshot" is if the released image was a little bit before they started graying/whiting out, but it's definitely not the whited-out canvas.

Btw many other Manifold questions asked about "end of r/place"or "final version" or "final snapshot" or "final canvas" etc - https://manifold.markets/group/rplace2023. Ideally it would have been better clarified, sure, but it seems there was at least some relatively widespread common understanding of what that meant.

predicted NO

@jack Ok, I see. I didn't know that the whiteout was known to happen beforehand. It was a surprise to me.

I assume they won’t close it before the whole canvas is white.

predicted NO


visible in the final snapshot

final snapshot is taken before the whiteout

@nickten Ah good point

predicted YES

(1300, 0) Fuck spez, large

(-100, -75) Fuck spez (might soon be gone)

(-475, -950) Fuck spez (gone)
(-450, 125) Fuck spez

(-225, -250) Fuck spez

(-1400, 250) Fuck spez (might soon be gone)

(-435, 450) Fuck spez, top and bottom (gone)

(-100, -400) u/spez ist ein hurensohn!

(-400, 0) Spez demission!
(-350, -50) Spez du Wappla!

(-935, 230) Reddit API protest painting

(-10, 0) Save 3rd party apps

predicted YES

Comment for when the above comment does not update after being edited.

My pixel disappears soon after I place it… rip

No way is the market not 99% at yes right now, even if the true probability is way lower

Why the sudden drop?

@MP I think it is FAKED YOU OUT

i have no idea GIF by PBS

@MP blame me, this is a low volume market and I'm the largest NO holder at the moment.

I think the chances are closer to 65%, based on /r/place precedent and Reddit's recent behavior and IPO ambitions. And I'm a normie that's here to gamble, which means I like markets with short expirations and long odds.

Lastly I don't understand how limit orders work on this site anymore, so I am just buying it down in chunks like a moron.

predicted YES

@shorty one of us!