resolved Jan 1

Resolves YES if in 2023 Reddit goes public, otherwise NO. Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc.

Announcing that they will go public doesn't count, they need to actually go public in 2023.

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bought Ṁ500 of NO


"The San Francisco-based firm, whose users helped fuel the meme-stock frenzy that made 2021 a banner year for equities, is weighing an IPO as soon as in the first quarter"


@ByrneHobart it's funny that you sold just before the ARM IPO is what people would call a success.

I still think the market is fairly priced, but everybody and their mother is probably calling their investment banker and asking them how soon can they go public.

@palcu Part of it's just the timing: I suspect the blackout messed with their numbers, and they probably want at least one clean quarter. That's probably Q4. Other alternative was to rush things through, but I don't think they want to go public on decent 1H23 numbers and then have a bad quarter literally the first time they report; bankers don't want that.

All of this is irrelevant if the boycott is just a blip (and my guess is that immediate revenue impact is not huge).

predicted YES

@ByrneHobart yeah, it makes sense. Thanks for the analysis.

predicted NO

I felt queasy being on the other side of a tech trade against Byrne. Literally this increases my confidence in NO.

predicted NO

Interesting that the protests don't seem to have moved this market much

predicted YES

What was that big drop on June 7th triggered by?

predicted NO

@LukeHanks its only 13% shift from 50%. Not a big drop

predicted NO

@LukeHanks it was me thinking the market is overpriced because of the layoffs

predicted NO

Ideal time to IPO before it goes to zero

bought Ṁ100 of YES

From a GQ article last month: https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/lifestyle/article/steve-huffman-reddit-ceo-interview

>The sprightly 39-year-old is talking to us on a dreary London day, just a few weeks before he’s due to be married and hours before he’s jetting off to a blockchain conference in Paris – seemingly with the intention of shitposting as many crypto bros in-person as possible. Once that’s all done, Reddit is finally growing up and going public, just as Facebook (which was founded a year earlier in 2004) did way back in 2012. “We wanted to IPO the company last year, and the market has not been great,” he says.


>While an imminent IPO represents the culmination of this eight-year redemption arc, Huffman still hasn’t lost his edge, not least when it comes to TikTok.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@ByrneHobart Are there really any tangable reasons this wouldn't happen this year? Would expect to see this market higher

predicted NO

@ScipioFabius sorry to be on the other side of the trade, but the first rate cut is priced now in Nov this year. And we'll be going by then through a bunch of restructuring for companies that have too much debt.

Everybody is looking for Stripe or Bytedance to IPO and since the first one just raised a round, they can wait till H1 2024 for lower interest rates to permeate and sell high.

I can't see Reddit or FWIW a medium unicorn IPO this year, unless they are forced to raise capital. But the private markets for tech companies haven't puked like in 2001.

@palcu What will happen if a lot of zombies go bankrupt in 2024? Will they still IPO then if the overall market is depressed? (I'm definitely not a financial wiz)

Is announcing the IPO enough or do they need to end up being listed during 2023?

predicted NO

@Odoacre Sounds like the latter, but this is a great question for getting clarity

predicted YES

This is about when they are publicly listed.