Resolves YES if in 2023 Reddit goes public, otherwise NO. Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc.
Announcing that they will go public doesn't count, they need to actually go public in 2023.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-27/reddit-leads-class-of-2024-us-ipo-candidates-testing-the-water?embedded-checkout=true
"The San Francisco-based firm, whose users helped fuel the meme-stock frenzy that made 2021 a banner year for equities, is weighing an IPO as soon as in the first quarter"
@ByrneHobart it's funny that you sold just before the ARM IPO is what people would call a success.
I still think the market is fairly priced, but everybody and their mother is probably calling their investment banker and asking them how soon can they go public.
@palcu Part of it's just the timing: I suspect the blackout messed with their numbers, and they probably want at least one clean quarter. That's probably Q4. Other alternative was to rush things through, but I don't think they want to go public on decent 1H23 numbers and then have a bad quarter literally the first time they report; bankers don't want that.
All of this is irrelevant if the boycott is just a blip (and my guess is that immediate revenue impact is not huge).
Reddit just did layoffs and wants to break even next year.
From a GQ article last month: https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/lifestyle/article/steve-huffman-reddit-ceo-interview
>The sprightly 39-year-old is talking to us on a dreary London day, just a few weeks before he’s due to be married and hours before he’s jetting off to a blockchain conference in Paris – seemingly with the intention of shitposting as many crypto bros in-person as possible. Once that’s all done, Reddit is finally growing up and going public, just as Facebook (which was founded a year earlier in 2004) did way back in 2012. “We wanted to IPO the company last year, and the market has not been great,” he says.
Later:
>While an imminent IPO represents the culmination of this eight-year redemption arc, Huffman still hasn’t lost his edge, not least when it comes to TikTok.
@ByrneHobart Are there really any tangable reasons this wouldn't happen this year? Would expect to see this market higher
@ScipioFabius sorry to be on the other side of the trade, but the first rate cut is priced now in Nov this year. And we'll be going by then through a bunch of restructuring for companies that have too much debt.
Everybody is looking for Stripe or Bytedance to IPO and since the first one just raised a round, they can wait till H1 2024 for lower interest rates to permeate and sell high.
I can't see Reddit or FWIW a medium unicorn IPO this year, unless they are forced to raise capital. But the private markets for tech companies haven't puked like in 2001.
@palcu What will happen if a lot of zombies go bankrupt in 2024? Will they still IPO then if the overall market is depressed? (I'm definitely not a financial wiz)