Resolution

Resolves YES if North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon offensively by December 31, 2023. NO otherwise.

Details

• Offensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.

  • I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/ and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive.

• The detonation does not need to be deliberate to count towards question resolution - an inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorized detonation can count.

Related

See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.