Resolve Yes if Nikki Haley wins at least one state's Republican primary or caucus held on Super Tuesday (March 5).
("Win" for this question is defined as getting more votes than the other Republican candidates, e.g. Trump. In case that information is not published for a given state, then it is defined instead as getting more delegates for that state)
The list from https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/26/which-states-vote-super-tuesday/72747123007/
Alabama
Alaska (GOP only)
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Iowa
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
For this question, the U.S. territory of American Samoa does not count because it is not a state.
If she drops out before Super Tuesday, the question still resolves as specified. It is technically possible for a dropped-out candidate to win.
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Called by AP - Haley won Vermont. https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/vermont/
Vermont is close, currently Haley leading: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/results-vermont-republican-presidential-primary.html
In practice, this is equivalent to https://manifold.markets/LBeesley/will-a-repub-presidential-candidate and the inverse of https://manifold.markets/MickBransfield/will-trump-sweep-super-tuesday.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746
Yet there are a number of states voting on or before Super Tuesday that suit her. How? Haley’s best chances will be in those that are both more moderate than Iowa or South Carolina and that are either open to all registered voters or which permit registered independents to vote in the GOP primary. And they need to have larger shares of college educated voters, Haley’s only consistently strong demographic thus far.
Her travel schedule until Super Tuesday seems perfectly aligned with this strategy.
Copying some relevant snippets about the states where she seems to have the best shot:
She first held two rallies in Michigan in advance of that state’s primary. She then headed to Minnesota for a Minneapolis event. Both upper Midwestern states are known for their relatively moderate politics and have no party registration, allowing independents and stray Democrats to cast Republican ballots.
Haley jetted to Colorado this week, another moderate state with a high level of educational attainment that allows registered independents to cast Republican ballots.
Then Haley streaks to Utah, which holds a caucus on Super Tuesday. That appears to be a strange choice until one recalls that Mormons strongly opposed Trump in 2016. He finished third in that year’s GOP contest, garnering only 14 percent.
After that, she’s back to the East Coast where she holds rallies in North Carolina, Virginia, and the nation’s capital. D.C. is probably her best bet to win because it’s the headquarters of the anti-Trump GOP elite. Rubio and John Kasich combined to get nearly 73 percent here in 2016. If Haley can’t win here, she can’t win anywhere.
Her final scheduled events are in especially telling locations. One will unfold in Needham, Massachusetts. Needham makes Centennial look like a slum from the wrong side of the tracks. Its median household income exceeds $200,000 and over 80 percent of adults have a four-year degree or better.
Then comes a rally in Vermont, where moderate Phil Scott is one of the few Republican governors to have endorsed her.
Massachusetts, neighboring Vermont and Maine all allow independents to vote in their Super Tuesday contests and typically prefer more moderate Republicans. Haley will be betting they will make a final stand despite the odds against her.