Will my wife get Covid from me, if we take moderate precautions?
Jack's personal Covid questions
15
3
Ṁ300
resolved Jul 19
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if my wife gets Covid in the next couple weeks (as determined by test results) conditional on us taking moderate precautions to avoid transmission. The sort of precautions I'm roughly thinking of:

- Reducing contact by 90% - mostly staying to separate rooms, but not completely isolating, and not trying super hard to avoid going into shared spaces

- Me wearing a mask 90% of the time when in shared spaces - N95 or P100 (with filtered exhalations)

- Spending most of my day outdoors.

- High filtration and ventilation: I have several air purifiers running providing ~4 ACH and several window fans running probably providing another ~4 ACH (this is the same in all the conditionals).

See companion questions with other conditionals: if we isolate https://manifold.markets/jack/will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w and if we do not isolate https://manifold.markets/jack/will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w-5d3916db7dd4. Please note that we were already in close contact before my positive covid test and before my symptoms really started, and I think I was already highly infectious at that point.

Related questions: https://manifold.markets/group/jacks-personal-covid-questions/questions

My Covid timeline: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18_4eASH4NEuq2r1LyB7OQiWnbom1tf-WVISSaf0eork/edit#gid=0

Close date updated to 2022-07-20 11:59 pm

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predicted NO
Resolving NO, I've been Covid-negative for last 4 days, all her tests have been negative and she has had no signs of any symptoms.
bought Ṁ8,000 of NO
See https://manifold.markets/jack/will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w#jfONtVRLKIyR04rqS4zU for the info I was able to find on base rates from Omicron household transmission studies.
bought Ṁ140 of NO
So far still no, and I just got negative antigen tests two days in a row. Will wait a few more days before resolving.
predicted NO
My rapid test just now was a barely visible positive. I still have a slight cough. Based on what I know of the Omicron infection timeline and how the tests work, I think I'm almost non-infectious at this point, so we're not masking or isolating anymore. I'll continue to monitor in case of a post-Paxlovid rebound.
predicted NO
I am still staying at home and avoiding contact with anyone other than my wife for the next couple days, until I've gotten a couple consistent negative tests.
bought Ṁ300 of NO
My wife has gotten negative rapid antigen test results so far, updating on that: The prior market prediction was 48%. I think most of the chance of infection would have come from 6/30-7/1 before we isolated, and when I was also highly infectious. Omicron has a ~2 day incubation period, so it seems likely that she did not get infected at that time. After about 3 days I appeared to be much less infectious based on getting much fainter positive lines on my rapid antigen tests.
predicted NO
N=1, but I didn't get Covid from my GF under similar circumstances.
bought Ṁ50 of NO
I had Covid twice and my partner caught it neither time. We took measures less stringent than these (including close contact before I knew I had it, but was mildly symptomatic). I think she’s got a good chance of avoiding it, but there seems to be a lot of chance/luck involved.
Please put comments here: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w

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