Will my wife get Covid from me, if we isolate from each other?
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resolved Jul 6
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Resolves YES if my wife gets Covid in the next couple weeks (as determined by test results) conditional on us isolating from each other. (It's slightly possible she'd get it from some other source, but most of the probability mass is from me.) Resolves N/A if we do not isolate from each other.
I just got Covid on 6/30. I was traveling until 6/30 so we were not together when I was exposed/infected, but were together when I become symptomatic/infectious.
See companion question with the other conditional: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w-5d3916db7dd4
Both of us are vaxxed and boosted with Pfizer/Moderna.
Please note that we were already in close contact before my positive covid test and before my symptoms really started, and I think I was already highly infectious at that point.
This question is conditional on us isolating from each other starting today.
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Resolves N/A because we isolated less than the conditions I described for this market.
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w-0f1ff257ac64 is the market that will track the actual outcome.
Overall market prediction was at about 25-40%, which seems a reasonable fit with the base rates I discussed in my previous comment.
Some base rates from this study on household transmission of Omicron: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7109e1.htm
Attack rate (AR, basically chance of transmission to each household member) was 52.7% overall.
With isolation (defined as at least sometimes isolating in a separate room at any point), AR was 41.2%; without isolation 67.5%. With any mask-wearing at home, AR was 39.5%. With zero mask-wearing at home, AR was 68.9%.
The isolation and mask-wearing are presumably highly correlated. So based on this I'd put the base rates at 40% with average precautions, 70% without precautions. Households with stricter or looser precautions would be above or below 40%.
I believe these numbers include the chance of infection during the time before detection and precautions can start. In our case, detection was relatively fast and we started taking precautions within about a day, so that might improve our chances a bit.
Surprisingly, there is a very small difference from vaccination status (in contrast, microcovid estimates that being vaccinated+boosted reduces the chance of infection by 4x). AR was also pretty similar across age groups.
Currently we are isolating somewhat - approaching this from the view of a moderate risk reduction without too much tradeoff.
- Mostly staying to separate rooms, but not trying super hard to avoid going into shared spaces. I'm mostly wearing a N95 or P100 (with filtered exhalations) when indoors in shared spaces. We have several air purifiers running providing ~4 ACH and several window fans running probably providing another ~4 ACH.
- I'm spending most of my day outdoors - we conveniently have a patio that I can use, and I've got a nice temporary desk setup there. We are not avoiding close contact outdoors. I estimate the risk of transmission outdoors as about 1/100 of indoors (1/25 compared to indoors with good filtration/ventilation), so this is still high given that I have covid but much smaller than indoors contact.
Not sure whether this should count as isolating or not isolating for these questions - probably more like not isolating.
Here's the third conditional version: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w-0f1ff257ac64
Some thoughts: I believe lower viral dose (amount of virus you're exposed to) both increases the probability that the immune system is able to suppress the infection, and likely reduces the likely severity of an infection. The relationship between viral dose and probability of infection appears to be well evidenced, but there is conflicting research on the relationship between viral dose and severity:
- https://en.adioscorona.org/questions-reponses/2020-09-10-covid-dose-virus-inoculum-s%C3%A9v%C3%A9rit%C3%A9-maladie.html assesses that severity is affected by viral dose
- https://news.tulane.edu/pr/tulane-researchers-examine-relationship-between-viral-dose-and-covid-19-severity is a review that finds no relationship
I think at small exposures (as in everyday life when you're interacting with people with typical covid risk) these effects are close to linear, but they become sublinear when talking about close contact with someone covid-positive. I don't know what the dose-response relationship curve is though.
@jack I don't think microcovid works at all since omicron to be honnest, the risks are not small enough to add as neatly as they did. I think if you isolate she'll probably not get covid, what I'm uncertain about is whether she's already caught it, which seeing how you were symptomatic and testing positive, I think the current probability is not accounting for
Yeah, that's basically my thinking too. I guesstimate that we've already incurred most of the transmission risk, maybe about 50% chance she's already gotten infected (which would show up after ~2 days incubation period), and the marginal transmission risk from additional exposure is smaller but still substantial, maybe ~25%.
Some studies on household transmission of Omicron: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7109e1.htm.
@wasabipesto We currently aren't isolating from each other, and we've already had about half a day of exposure. If we were to start isolating from each other, we'd stay isolated in separate rooms in the same house, and I'd limit time in common spaces as much as possible and mask then.