Will my wife get Covid from me, if we do NOT isolate from each other?
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resolved Jul 6
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N/A1D
1W
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Resolves YES if my wife gets Covid in the next couple weeks (as determined by test results) conditional on us NOT isolating from each other. (It's slightly possible she'd get it from some other source, but most of the probability mass is from me.) Resolves N/A if we do isolate from each other.
I just got Covid on 6/30. I was traveling until 6/30 so we were not together when I was exposed/infected, but were together when I become symptomatic/infectious.
See companion question with the other conditional: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w
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Resolves N/A because we did isolate somewhat.
Overall market prediction was at about 70%-80%. Base rates I found were about 70% household transmission rate without isolation or masking, as discussed at https://manifold.markets/jack/will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w#jfONtVRLKIyR04rqS4zU
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w-0f1ff257ac64 is the market that will track the actual outcome.
I'll put most of the discussion on the other market so it's more in one place: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-my-wife-get-covid-from-me-if-w